Middle East: Cereal Shortfalls
9 June 2009 The Middle East has been suffering from one of the worst droughts in recent history. While lack of rainfall is always a concern in a region covered so much by desert, rain-fed crops such as wheat and barley failed across the Middle East last year, prompting some countries to limit or ban summer agriculture. Regional wheat production is down 22% — close to 13 million tons — in the 2008/09 season. In addition to reduced supply from the grain shortfall in these markets, supplies of seed for planting will also be down this year because of last year’s reduced crop. The drought is continuing into the 2009/10 growing season, which could bolster imports into the region — good news for crop protection suppliers to countries that export to Middle East nations.
The nations of the Middle East will be affected this year to varying degrees by drought caused by below-normal rainfall and low winter snowfall. Some governments have placed bans on grain exports, while others are severely reducing area planted to rain-fed and irrigated crops. The damage has been so devastating in some areas that countries are actually abandoning their agricultural programs.
Crop Production
Wheat is the main crop across the region. Wheat and barley, another major crop, are fall-planted, with harvest in late spring/early summer. Smaller areas are planted to corn, cotton, and rice. Rain-fed crops also can be grown with irrigation, which is widespread throughout the area; a good percentage of the region’s agricultural production comes from irrigated areas.
The most important summer crops, sorghum and chickpea, require little moisture. However, the reduced rainfall during the last season — and predicted continuing drought through the 2009/10 growing season — have caused countries such as Jordan to ban summer agriculture. From May to September, common crops such as vegetables and leafy greens, will not be grown in order to secure water for drinking, human use, and protection of trees. Rainfall in Jordan — the majority of which falls in December and January — is at 32% of the average in northern areas, 22% in the central part of the country, and even less farther south. Although much of Jordan Valley’s 45,000 hectares (ha) of arable land is irrigated, the country’s 10 main dams are only around 27% of their capacity, and growers fear that water pumped to their crops will be diverted for domestic use.
| Regional Wheat Production (Million Tons) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | Change | Percent Change | ||||
| Afghanistan | 3.80 | 1.50 | -2.30 | -60.53 | ||||
| Azerbaijan | 1.43 | 1.60 | 0.18 | 12.28 | ||||
| Israel | 0.15 | 0.06 | -0.09 | -58.62 | ||||
| Jordan | 0.04 | 0.02 | -0.02 | -50.00 | ||||
| Pakistan | 23.30 | 21.50 | -1.80 | -7.73 | ||||
| Syria | 4.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 | -50.00 | ||||
| Tajikistan | 0.53 | 0.40 | -0.13 | -24.53 | ||||
| Turkmenistan | 1.60 | 1.20 | -0.40 | -25.00 | ||||
| Uzbekistan | 6.20 | 6.00 | -0.20 | -3.23 | ||||
| Total: | 58.38 | 45.58 | -12.80 | -21.93% | ||||
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Source: USDA-FAS |
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USDA reports that Afghanistan is one of the most seriously affected nations in the region, with 2008/09 wheat estimates at 1.5 million tons — down 2.3 million tons from the previous year. An estimated 80% of Afghanistan’s annual precipitation falls as snow in the central mountains. About 86% of the nation’s irrigated land is watered from rivers and streams coming from these mountains. The top crop is wheat — 45% of which is irrigated. The remaining 55% of rain-fed wheat area is located mostly in the northern third of the country — the hardest-hit area by the recent drought.
While winter rainfall was better in Iran than neighboring countries, drought and heat returned in February 2008, reducing the nation’s wheat production to its lowest level in six years, 20% below the previous season’s harvest, according to USDA-FAS. The majority of Iran’s rain-fed wheat area — accounting for at least 75% of the crop — is in the northwest, which has suffered extreme heat and dryness. Following the disappointing 2008/09 season, Iran imported 2 million tons of wheat, with even higher amounts expected for 2009/10 if the drought continues. Typically, the country produces around 6.6 million ha of wheat annually, 39% (2.6 million ha) of which is irrigated; the current season expects to see a decline in irrigated yields.
Iraq growers usually plant about 3.25 million ha of wheat and barley each year. However, due to one of the country’s worst droughts in 10 years, large areas of northern Iraq’s rain-fed grains went unplanted last season. Wheat production in 2008/09 fell 80% to 98% in some areas, creating a major domestic shortage. Typically, wheat and barely crops constitute at least 85% of the nation’s food grain production. Acreage this season is expected to be well below normal even if rain returns, as irrigation reservoirs struggle to maintain sustainable levels.
Although Pakistan was spared severe drought, it dropped 1.5 million tons last season from its record production one year before. In addition to precipitation levels about halved from the previous year, growers in Pakistan are dealing with high fuel and fertilizer costs, which could contribute to reduced area planted this season.
Wheat production in the kingdom is being phased out with plans for a complete halt by 2016 because of scarce water resources — the country has no permanent lakes or rivers and very little rainfall. Starting in 2009, Saudi Arabia plans to begin reducing production by 12.5% annually, counting on imports to fulfill domestic consumption. The country currently produces about 2.5 million tons each year, but it will be importing around 3.4 million tons annually by 2016, making it one of the top 15 wheat importers in the world.
During the 2008/09 growing season, Syria suffered its worst drought in 18 years. Wheat production was down 50% from the previous year, and with little to no measurable rainfall, rain-fed crops across the northeastern part of the country went unplanted. The country’s growers expect a major shortage of grain seed this season. In addition to a seed shortage, Syrian farmers are facing a significant rise in diesel prices for agriculture — up 300% to 500% — as well as reduced irrigation supplies. National wheat stocks are estimated at 4 million tons; however, they will be drawn down this year to make up for the drastically reduced planted area this season to meet normal domestic consumption. The government also expects to import wheat and barley this year to supplement declining stocks.
Turkey is the largest grain producer in the Middle East, and one of the least affected by the recent drought. Still, major reservoirs in the country have been reported at very low levels and water restrictions have been enacted. New tariff schedules for grains were enacted at the beginning of 2009, reports USDA-FAS, raising import tariffs on wheat, barley, rye, and oats from 50% to 80%, with the possibility of rising to 130% — a rate already in place for corn, sorghum, and millet. The drought did affect red lentil production, keeping lentil tariff rates at 5%, while rice tariffs range between 12% and 45%.
Having weathered the drought well compared to other Middle East nations, wheat production in Uzbekistan is expected to remain about the same as the last few years. Uzbekistan typically produces around 6 million tons of wheat each year, with winter wheat making up more than 90% of grain production and approximately 85% of the crop irrigated. Other nations of the former Soviet Union — Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan — experienced a less-severe drought than the more southern and western parts of the region.
One country in the region having the complete opposite problem from drought is Yemen. In October, heavy rainfall during a 30-hour period dropped 2 billion cubic meters of water, causing fatal flooding that destroyed agricultural land and washed away both crops and soil. The estimated US $360-million damage has put up to 700,000 people out of work, as around 70% of people in the flooded area are in some way connected to agriculture. Of concern now is desertification: With the loss of green cover and soil to the floods, more sand will collect in the area. A secondary concern is that less green cover will promote plant diseases and pests. As of April, delays in restoring the flooded lands were causing farmers to abandon agriculture to look for work in other sectors. The Agriculture and Irrigation Office called for a quick recovery of the area.
Sunshine On The Horizon
While the extended drought has been bad news for Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Israel, there’s still some hope for the 2009/10 season. Even though planted grain acreage will be down, specialty crops — especially along the mild climate of the Mediterranean coastlines — should continue being grown in two or more short-season crops. Long-season citrus fruits along with native fruit crops such as figs, grapes, olives, and dates could become the highest produced crops in the Middle East as long as the drought continues.
Additionally, the non-crop market might be a lucrative supplement to crop protection. The 2006/07 non-crop market value in Turkey alone was almost $38 million, with the majority of dollars in PCOs and consumer sales. Active ingredients like deltamethrin (cockroaches and ants), permethrin (rats), cypermethrin (flies and mites), and glyphosate (weeds) all had high end-user value in the Turkish consumer market, according to figures from the UK’s Agricultural Information Services. With the drought continuing for at least the upcoming season in the Middle East, alternative markets such as forestry, industrial, turf, and nursery and ornamental crops could salvage chemical manufacturers sales in the region.
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